Simulation modeling using @Risk : updated for Version 4 / Wayne L. Winston.

By: Winston, Wayne L .

Material type: materialTypeLabel

BookPublisher: Pacific Grove, CA : Brooks/Cole Pub. Co., 2000Description: viii, 226 p. : ill. ; 24 cm. + pbk.ISBN: 053438059X (m) (pbk).Subject(s): At risk (Computer file) | Business -- Computer simulationDDC classification: 658.055369

Contents:

What is simulation? -- Random numbers - the building blocks of simulation -- Using spreadsheets to perform simulations -- An introduction to @RISK -- Generating normal random variables -- Applications of simulation to corporate financial planning -- Simulating a cash budget -- A simulation approach to capacity planning -- Simulation and bidding -- Deming's funnel experiment -- The taguchi loss function -- The use of simulation in project management -- Simulating craps (and other games) -- Using simulation to determine optimal maintenance policies -- Using the Weibull distribution to model machine life -- Simulating stock prices and options -- Pricing path-dependent and exotic options -- Using immunization to manage interest rate risk -- Hedging with futures -- Modeling market share -- Generating correlated variables: designing a new product -- Simulating sampling plans with the hypergeometric distribution -- Simulating inventory models -- Simulating a single-server queuing system.

Holdings
Item type	Current library	Call number	Copy number	Status	Date due	Barcode	Item holds
General Lending	MTU Bishopstown Library Lending	658.055369 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	1	Available		00086105
General Lending	MTU Bishopstown Library Lending	658.055369 (Browse shelf(Opens below))	1	Available		00086106

Total holds: 0

Enhanced descriptions from Syndetics:

With its understandable explanations of Monte Carlo and step-by-step instructions for Microsoft Excel, Lotus, and @Risk software, this text/software package offers both the instruction and the practice students need to begin solving complex business problems. It is designed for use as the primary learning tool in a short business simulation course (for advanced undergraduate and MBA students), or as a supplement to courses in investments, corporate finance, management science, marketing strategy, operations management, and actuarial science.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Table of contents provided by Syndetics

Chapter 1 What Is Simulation? (p. 1)
1.1 Actual Applications of Simulation (p. 2)
1.2 What's Ahead? (p. 4)
1.3 Simulation Models Versus Analytic Models (p. 6)
Chapter 2 Random Numbers--The Building Blocks of Simulation (p. 9)
Problems (p. 11)
Chapter 3 Using Spreadsheets to Perform Simulations (p. 13)
Example 3.1 The Newsvendor Problem (p. 13)
3.1 Finding a Confidence Interval for Expected Profit (p. 18)
3.2 How Many Trials Do We Need? (p. 18)
3.3 Determination of the Optimal Order Quantity (p. 19)
3.4 Using Excel Data Tables to Repeat a Simulation (p. 24)
3.5 Performing the Newsvendor Simulation with the Excel Random Number Generator (p. 28)
Problems (p. 30)
Chapter 4 An Introduction to @RISK (p. 33)
4.1 Simulating the Newsvendor Example with @RISK (p. 33)
4.2 Explanation of Statistical Results (p. 40)
4.3 Conclusions (p. 41)
Chapter 5 Generating Normal Random Variables (p. 43)
5.1 Simulating Normal Demand with @RISK (p. 43)
5.2 Using the Graph Type Icons (p. 45)
5.3 Placing Target Values in the Statistics Output (p. 46)
5.4 Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of a Normal Distribution (p. 46)
Problems (p. 47)
Chapter 6 Applications of Simulation to Corporate Financial Planning (p. 49)
6.1 Using the Triangular Distribution to Model Sales (p. 57)
6.2 Sensitivity Analysis with Tornado Graphs (p. 59)
6.3 Sensitivity Analysis with Scenarios (p. 61)
6.4 Alternative Modeling Strategies (p. 62)
Problems (p. 63)
Chapter 7 Simulating a Cash Budget (p. 69)
Example 7.1 Cash Budgeting (p. 69)
Problems (p. 75)
Chapter 8 A Simulation Approach to Capacity Planning (p. 83)
Example 8.1 Wozac Capacity Example (p. 83)
Problems (p. 89)
Chapter 9 Simulation and Bidding (p. 93)
9.1 Uniform Random Variables (p. 93)
9.2 A Bidding Example (p. 93)
Problems (p. 95)
Chapter 10 Deming's Funnel Experiment (p. 97)
10.1 Simulating Rule 1 (Don't Touch That Funnel!) (p. 98)
10.2 Simulating Rule 2 (p. 100)
10.3 Comparison of Rules 1-4 (p. 102)
10.4 Lesson of the Funnel Experiment (p. 102)
10.5 Mathematical Explanation of the Funnel Experiment (p. 102)
Problems (p. 104)
Chapter 11 The Taguchi Loss Function (p. 105)
11.1 Using @RISK to Quantify Quality Loss (p. 106)
Problems (p. 108)
Chapter 12 The Use of Simulation in Project Management (p. 111)
Example 12.1 The Widgetco Example (p. 111)
12.1 Estimating Probability Distribution of Project Completion Time (p. 113)
12.2 Determining the Probability That an Activity Is Critical (p. 117)
12.3 The Beta Distribution and Project Management (p. 118)
Problems (p. 120)
Chapter 13 Simulating Craps (and Other Games) (p. 123)
Example 13.1 Simulating Craps (p. 123)
13.1 Confidence Interval for Winning at Craps (p. 125)
Problems (p. 126)
Chapter 14 Using Simulation to Determine Optimal Maintenance Policies (p. 129)
Example 14.1 (p. 129)
Problems (p. 133)
Chapter 15 Using the Weibull Distribution to Model Machine Life (p. 135)
Example 15.1 Simulating Equipment Replacement Decisions (p. 136)
Problems (p. 139)
Chapter 16 Simulating Stock Prices and Options (p. 141)
16.1 Modeling the Price of a Stock (p. 141)
16.2 Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of Stock Returns from Historical Data (p. 142)
16.3 What Is an Option? (p. 144)
16.4 Pricing a Call Option (p. 145)
Example 16.1a Pricing a European Call Option with @RISK (p. 145)
16.5 Analyzing a Portfolio of Investments (p. 148)
Example 16.1b Simulating Portfolio Return (p. 149)
Problems (p. 153)
Chapter 17 Pricing Path-Dependent and Exotic Options (p. 157)
Example 17.1 Pricing a Path-Dependent Option (p. 158)
Problems (p. 160)
Chapter 18 Using Immunization to Manage Interest Rate Risk (p. 161)
18.1 Duration (p. 164)
18.2 Convexity (p. 165)
18.3 Immunization Against Interest Rate Risk (p. 165)
Example 18.1 Immunization Using Solver (p. 165)
18.4 Better Models for Interest Rate Risk (p. 172)
Problems (p. 172)
Chapter 19 Hedging with Futures (p. 175)
19.1 Hedging with Futures: The Basics (p. 175)
19.2 Modeling Futures Risk with @RISK (p. 176)
Problems (p. 179)
Chapter 20 Modeling Market Share (p. 183)
Example 20.1a Market Share Simulation (p. 183)
20.1 Is Advertising Worthwhile? (p. 185)
Example 20.1b Advertising Effectiveness (p. 185)
20.2 To Coupon or Not to Coupon? (p. 187)
Example 20.1c Should Coke Give Out Coupons? (p. 187)
Problems (p. 189)
Chapter 21 Generating Correlated Variables: Designing a New Product (p. 193)
Example 21.1 (p. 193)
Problems (p. 200)
Chapter 22 Simulating Sampling Plans with the Hypergeometric Distribution (p. 205)
Example 22.1 Simulating a Sampling Plan (p. 206)
Problems (p. 207)
Chapter 23 Simulating Inventory Models (p. 209)
Example 23.1 Simulating a Periodic Review Inventory System (p. 210)
Problems (p. 214)
Chapter 24 Simulating a Single-Server Queuing System (p. 217)
Example 24.1 Queuing Simulation in @RISK (p. 217)
24.1 Estimating the Operating Characteristics of a Queuing System (p. 223)
Problems (p. 224)
Index (p. 225)

Simulation modeling using @Risk : updated for Version 4 / Wayne L. Winston.

By: Winston, Wayne L.

Enhanced descriptions from Syndetics:

Table of contents provided by Syndetics

By: Winston, Wayne L .